Keywords: air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, trends, ClimUAd, CMIP6

This study presents an analysis of trends in annual and seasonal averages of daily minimum (TN), mean (TG), and maximum (TX) air temperature, as well as in annual and seasonal totals of atmospheric precipitation (RR), across both national and regional scales. Two time intervals were examined: 1946–2020, representing the period of observational data, and 2026–2100, representing future climate projections. All calculations were performed using high-resolution gridded datasets (~10 km × 10 km), which provide a sufficiently detailed spatial representation to support the development of national and regional climate-change adaptation strategies. For the historical period, the analysis relied on the ClimUAd dataset, constructed from homogenized observations of 178 meteorological stations across Ukraine and subsequently processed to ensure spatial consistency and representativeness of the climatic fields. For the future period, trends were estimated using a statistical ensemble of climate projections obtained using new-generation global climate models (CMIP6), based on updated scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic development of humanity (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Prior to trend analysis, bias correction was applied to all model outputs using the Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) method, ensuring that systematic deviations from observed climate conditions were effectively removed. The results show statistically significant changes in temperature patterns throughout Ukraine for both the observation period and the future period for both considered scenarios (for all air temperature indicators considered, all seasons, and the year). Under SSP2-4.5, the intensity of warming remains broadly comparable to the trends observed in 1946–2020, whereas SSP5-8.5 indicates a much stronger and more rapid increase in temperature. Changes in precipitation are considerably less pronounced, vary in sign across regions and seasons, and are mostly statistically insignificant.

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